The Employment Trends Index, an aggregate of 8 different employment indicators monitored by SIA has shown a slight decline of about 2% in the month of October. Over the year the index has remained mainly flat with subtle variations and has only begun to show signs of a decline in the previous month.
SIA emphasizes they do not think this is a major economic turning point, but it may show signs of what is yet to come. Overall, they have determined that job growth will remain slow as the labor force continues to rebound from the COVID pandemic and people gradually return to work.
The continued hiking of rates by the Federal Reserve also will put pressure on the economy as more and more financial institutions concede that a recession in the coming months will be inevitable. An economist employed by the conference board at SIA took the position that until further rate hikes begin into the beginning of 2023, labor shortage will still be an ongoing issue to employers.
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